As President Musharraf undertook the daunting task of overcoming Pakistan’s
multi faceted crisis, he realized early on that peace with India is an
essential element to his effort. Given the gathering storm of a deepening
economic crisis, rising violence by religious extremists and institutional
tensions within the state structure, bringing the ship of state to an
even keel required boldness and flexibility. President Musharraf has demonstrated
both. Boldness was required to make the protagonists realize that this
is a historic moment when there is a real opportunity for peace and building
a better future for both Pakistan and India. Flexibility was required
to maximize the gains for Pakistan in a rapidly changing situation. The
logic of both boldness and flexibility at the tactical level can only
be grasped in a strategic perspective. Hence in this article we will examine
the implications of Pakistan’s new foreign policy initiative in
the changed strategic context faced by Pakistan and India respectively.
A series of initiatives were taken by President Musharraf to break the
deadlock: The first was an offer for unconditional talks with India. The
second was the offer to cooperate with India in together combating terrorism
in the two countries. The third was recognition of the reality that the
principal threat to the integrity of Pakistan was not external i.e. from
another state, but internal i.e. from the forces of religious extremism
within the country. The fourth is the latest statement during an interview
with Reuters News Agency (December 18) that the UN resolutions on Kashmir
could be set aside in the process of negotiating the Kashmir dispute,
provided both sides showed flexibility. As a result of these initiatives,
Pakistan is gaining the support of the international community for the
maturity and sagacity of its foreign policy with the attendant prospect
of acquiring additional leverage in negotiations on the Kashmir issue.
The tactical foreign policy initiatives also set the stage for a possible
breakthrough during the SAARC Summit when a number of key decisions could
be taken for the economic welfare of the peoples of the region. The most
important of these is an agreement on a South Asian Preferential Trade
Agreement (SAPTA), which could be a step towards a South Asian Free Trade
Area (SAFTA). During the days of the SAARC Summit there is also the possibility
that the process of bilateral talks between India and Pakistan may begin
with an informal exchange between the leadership of the two countries.
When the President in his Reuters interview last Friday said he was prepared
to be “bold and flexible” in an attempt to resolve the Kashmir
dispute, it was clearly an approach to the process of negotiations and
not any particular unilateral concession prior to the process. Let us
make a simple proposition on the nature of negotiations: If India and
Pakistan wish to negotiate, then the very decision to negotiate signifies
the willingness of both parties to set aside their stated prior positions.
Further more if a resolution of the dispute is to be achieved, clearly
at some point in the negotiating process, a common ground must be found
that is different from the initial conflicting standpoints. It is in this
context of negotiations that “boldness” and “flexibility”
provides the advantage of speed and efficacy for gaining ground. By contrast,
diffidence and inflexibility by one party during negotiation would result
in it losing ground as the other party runs circles around it.
The initiatives taken so far, have been executed with skill and sagacity
by Pakistan’s able Foreign Minister, Mr. Kasuri. They indicate that
we now have for the first time in 5 decades, a Kashmir policy rather than
a mere stand. A stand is a rigid statement of principle in a deadlock
within which there is verbal repetition but no progress and no practical
gains on the ground. A policy is a nuanced series of steps to break the
deadlock and make progress in optimizing real gains for the country.
The present moment in the sub-continent’s history is defined both
by objective circumstances and the individuals at play. It provides an
opportunity for establishing a lasting peace because it is now a strategic
imperative of not only society but also the state in both India and Pakistan.
Let us see how this is so in each case. At the economic level India having
established the industrial base for indigenous technological change and
a high growth trajectory, needs to sustain its high GDP growth into the
future. This creates the imperative of (i) establishing an efficient infrastructure
for the supply of oil, gas and electricity and (ii) developing markets
for its manufactured exports in South Asia and abroad. Both these strategic
needs impel India to seek peace with Pakistan. Oil and gas pipelines from
Central and West Asia to be economically feasible would have to pass through
Pakistan, just as surplus electricity from Pakistan can be imported by
India. Similarly, if an integrated South Asian market is to emerge for
the welfare of all South Asian countries Indo-Pak peace is essential.
Peace and economic cooperation with Pakistan is necessary for India not
only to secure its strategic economic interests but also to maintain its
secular democratic polity. A high growth, open economy framework for India
today is inseparable from a liberal democratic political structure. Therefore
the growing social forces of Hindu nationalism, intolerant of its minorities
will undermine India’s secular democratic structure as much as its
economic endeavour. Continued tension between India and Pakistan, will
only fuel extremist religious forces in both countries, to the detriment
of their economy and polity.
While India needs peace to graduate into an advanced industrial economy,
Pakistan with its relatively fragile economy needs peace for its very
economic survival. Its economy is growing far below its potential, has
stagnating exports, a fragile exchange rate, a major poverty problem,
and incipient social forces of religious extremism that can grow rapidly
if poverty persists and tension with India continues. Peace with India
will mean a substantially improved environment for domestic and foreign
investment. Those Pakistani industries that can achieve international
competitiveness will grow rapidly within the large regional market of
SAFTA. At the same time the capital costs of investment in Pakistan will
be reduced as cheaper capital and intermediate goods from India (compared
to imports from Europe and the U.S.) become available, thereby accelerating
GDP growth. The real incomes of Pakistan’s middle and low-income
groups will also increase as they get cheaper consumer goods from India.
Electricity costs for Pakistani consumers will fall as Pakistan’s
thermal power plants achieve better capacity utilization through export
of electricity across the border to India.
I have argued that through peace, both India and Pakistan can reap economic
benefits for their people, secure their respective democratic structures
against the forces of religious extremism, and provide security to their
citizens. Thus, for the first time in the post independence period the
economy and the polity of India and Pakistan (although in differing ways)
are at a turning point. The pursuit of development, democracy and national
security impel both countries towards making peace. In August 1947, Prime
Minister Jawahar Lal Nehru in his moving speech referred to independence
as India’s tryst with destiny. Today we are in another moment of
destiny. The dreams of the people of India and Pakistan at independence
for a better life can be fulfilled by living together in peace within
two independent states. The people in both countries, already aware of
this fact, beckon their leaders to grasp this moment. Will they?
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