As the SAARC Summit in Islamabad begins, South Asia may be poised for
a breakthrough in the process of regional cooperation. It comes against
the backdrop of peace overtures between India and Pakistan and prospects
that the easing of their bilateral tensions, may release the principal
constraint to rapid progress in economic cooperation within SAARC. It
may be time to briefly examine the logic of deepening economic cooperation
in South Asia and indicate some of the specific initiatives that can be
taken during the SAARC Summit.
South Asia stands today at the cusp of history: Between a past darkened
by poverty, disease, illiteracy and conflict, and a bright future, when
the great potential of its human and natural resources, and the shared
humanity of its diverse cultures can be actualized. The global environment
provides a historically unprecedented scale of private capital flows,
trade opportunities, information and technology, which if utilized can
dramatically transform the material conditions of life of the countries
of South Asia. Within the globalized economy the emergence of a number
of regional economic blocs in the continents of Asia, Africa and America,
demonstrates that the economic and social welfare of any country is advanced
far more if it interacts within the global economy as part of a regional
bloc, rather than individually. An integrated regional economy accelerates
economic growth of member countries through the advantages of geographic
proximity, economies of scale in production and infrastructure. At the
same time member countries enjoy better leverage in dealing with the global
system of finance, investment, trade and institutions. A regional bloc
also provides a stabilizing cushion to member countries from the destabilizing
fluctuations in the global economy.
For South Asian countries, moving towards regional economic integration
provides an opportunity for rapidly accelerating economic growth through
increased foreign direct investment from rest of the world, lowering energy
costs through power trading, improving the quality and connectivity of
infrastructure, increased intra-SAARC trade and the negotiation of better
terms for common interests with the WTO.
An examination of the economic growth performance of South Asian countries
shows that economic growth is far below its potential and still sharply
lower than the growth rates prevailing for example in South East Asia.
Recent research has shown that much of the difference in the growth performance
of South East Asia compared to South Asia is attributable to much higher
rates of investment in the former. Apart from this, poorer performance
of governance variables in South Asia such as economic regulatory systems,
fiscal and judicial systems, are important factors in the relatively poor
growth performance of South Asia compared to South East Asia. Lower levels
of governance variables leads to increased cost of investment and hence
lower economic growth rates for given levels of investment. Increasing
investment and accelerating economic growth in South Asia through regional
cooperation would therefore play an important role in improving the standard
of living of the people in the region. In this context policies should
be initiated for facilitating joint venture investment projects, developing
infrastructure and increasing the efficiency of investment by providing
incentives for technology transfers and firm level R & D associated
with foreign direct investment.
A rapid improvement in the material conditions of the people of South
Asia requires not only a faster economic growth rate but also a restructuring
of growth so as to make it pro poor. This requires providing the institutional
basis and economic incentives for changing the composition of investment
towards those sectors which generate relatively more employment and which
enable increased productivity and incomes of the poor. These sectors include
the construction sector, small-scale industries, and milk, fruits, flowers
and vegetables and marine fisheries. Regional infrastructure for transportation,
technical services and skill development could enable new growth centers
at the regional level for the production and export of the goods and services
in these sectors. The increased weight of the output of these sectors
in total GDP would enable not only a faster economic growth rate for given
levels of investment but also a more equitable growth.
The SAARC Summit could make a major contribution to improving the material
welfare of the people of South Asia if it could take policy action in
the following four fields:
- Energy Cooperation: Energy cooperation within South Asia
means enabling power trading in the region. This calls for establishment
of high voltage interconnections between the national grids of the countries
of the region. It also means cooperation between India, Pakistan and
Bangladesh for transporting gas from Iran, Qatar and Turkmenistan across
the South Asian region.
- Development of Regional Infrastructure: SAARC could accelerate
increased investment and economic growth in South Asia, by facilitating
private sector joint projects in building a network of motorways, railways
at international quality standards through out South Asia. These modern
road and rail networks could connect all the major commercial centers,
towns and cities of SAARC countries with each other and with the economies
of Central Asia, West Asia and East Asia.
- Restructuring Growth for Poverty Alleviation: The capacity
of growth to alleviate poverty can be enhanced by facilitating joint
venture projects and regional infrastructure for the production and
export of high value added agricultural products which put income into
the hands of the poor such as milk, vegetables, fruits, flowers and
marine fisheries. At the same time a SAARC Educational Foundation and
a SAARC Health Foundation could be established to set up model high
schools and model hospitals at international standards in each district
in each country of South Asia.
- A Free Trade Area in South Asia: To hasten liberalization
in the process of moving to a free trade area, a combination of negative
and inclusive list could be pursued as in the case of the Indo-Lanka
Free Trade Agreement and the ASEAN Common Effective Preferential Tariff
(CEPT) Scheme. Additionally provisions for compensatory financing for
the weaker economies within SAARC could be incorporated into SAFTA to
address the issue of revenue loss.
If SAARC could take the specific initiatives indicated above in the fields
of Free Trade, Energy Cooperation, Infrastructure, and Poverty Alleviation,
then the Islamabad Summit could prove a watershed in the economic history
of South Asia. |